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Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Cone of Probable Path - Reconciling fate, probability and butterfly-effect

Hello Readers,

Help me with the following thought process as I try to reconcile the most probable future event from a given current event.

As you read on, you may tempted to take your own examples; I prefer to stay with a simple one - A Running Race frozen in time and the fate of a runner from there onwards. You may want to take other tangible examples like that of share price of a company in a stock market or fate of economy of a country from one point (if you are that ambitious).

The "Cone of Probable Paths" (as I like to put it) is more a set of postulates. It tries to reconcile fate, probability and possibly butterfly effect... I have pasted them below. Just read them for entertaintment - If possible try to respond helping me with the thought process. I moderate the discussion just so that we try to stay on course of the discussion.
  1. Every occurence of an event sets in motion a Cone-of-probable-path (COPP) that, in turn, defines the next course of probable events.

  2. The center of the cone represents high probablity and hence least effort to travel between two event points.

  3. Consequently, the periphery of the cone represents path of lesser probability and hence greater effort to traverse the events.

  4. Whether delineated or not, there exists a definite cone-of-probable path between any two event-cones. e.g. arriving at one event point from another always involves a cone of probable path.

  5. The cone of probable path changes continuously as events occur in an event-chain. The COPP is also influenced by apparently unrelated parallel events occuring elsewhere.

  6. While it is most often easy and possible to define the central part of the cone of COPP, it is often difficult to quantify the peripheral parts of such a cone.

  7. A miracle may be regarded as the least probable path between two event-cones lacking valid documentation to define the cone-path.

  8. In other words the event chain is like a sublimation process in physics.

  9. Simply put, a miracle doesnt exist.
In short, I regard the future of any current event as a seed for probable future events (some more probable than the others). As a result, I envision a Cone of Probable Path (or Cone of probable space times) originating from every event, with the central part of the cone representing most highly probable paths.
(c) Copyright 2008- . All rights reserved. No part of this posted material may be used without direct consent from the author - Natarajan Ganesan